Turkey is just fine with Ahmadinejad's election victory

Turkey was among the first countries to congratulate the Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with his re-election. Ankara has no interest in jeopardising relations with Tehran.

Ever since the 1979 Islamic revolution, "Iran" has been a popular swearword in Turkish politics. Any politicians who even hints at challenging the secular Turkish constitution is routinely accused of wanting to "turn Turkey into another Iran". A mayor wants to outlaw alcohol in his village? Iran! The prime minister wants to allow headscarves at the universities? Iran!

So it is at least remarkable that the Turkish government was first in line to congratulate president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on his controversial election victory. While European countries and the US are calling for a recount, Ankara sent its best wishes to Tehran. "We hope the dynamic and the high voter turnout in these elections will not be overshadowed by the recent development," Turkey's foreign minister added.

"Remarkable? I think you mean obvious," a spokesman for the foreign ministry said. "We have enjoyed good relations with Iran for four-hundred years. No international border has been respected for so long as the one between Turkey and Iran. If a friendly nation holds an election, then the winner is entitled to our congratulations."

The Turkish government has no interest in waiting for the outcome of the demonstrations in favour of opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi. Turkey prefers the status quo: the re-election of conservative president Ahmadinejad.

That goes not just for the governing conservative AK party, which is often accused by its political enemies of flirting with political Islam, but also for the very people who routinely make these kinds of accusations: the secular nationalists and the powerful military. Nobody in Turkey wants another revolution in neighbouring Iran.

Good business

In the past few days, several nationalist newspapers in Turkey accused the West of having a hand in the street protests in Iran. True or not, that's exactly the sort of interference that Turkey is afraid of too.

What's more, "the status quo is good business", said Arzu Celaliser-Ekinci of the International Strategic Research Organisation, an Ankara-based think-tank.

Trade between Iran and Turkey has increased tenfold in the past ten years. Turkey gets one fifth of its natural gas from Iran, and Ahmadinejad has personally promised Turkey a major stake in the exploration of the gas fields in the south of Iran. Much of that gas will be sold to Europe, which is eager to become less dependent on Russian gas, and Turkey is hoping for a piece of the cake for allowing the Iranian gas to be transported over its territory.

Reason enough for the Turks to remain "neutral" vis-a-vis Iran, said Celaliser-Ekinci. "Turkey is in a tough spot, being a Nato member, a candidate for EU membership and a neighbour of Iran. We will always choose the policy that least offends."

Being neutral can be a painful exercise. When Ahmadinejad visited Turkey last year, another one of Turkey's allies was deeply offended. "We don't think it's a good idea to give legitimacy to someone who has called for the destruction of the state of Israel," a top Israeli official complained.

In Turkey itself there was last-minute panic when Ahmadinejad refused to visit the grave of Atatürk, the founding father of the secular Turkish state, and a routine stop on any official visit. A compromise was made: the Iranian delegation skipped the capital Ankara entirely.

A common enemy

Meanwhile, military circles in Turkey are weary about Iran's nuclear ambitions. Having a nuclear power as a next-door neighbour is as much as nightmare scenario for Turkey as it is for Europe and the US.

"Turkey believes this problem can only be solved by diplomacy," said Mustafa Kibaroglu, an expert on nuclear non-proliferation at Ankara's Bilkent university. With a little help from US president Barack Obama, Turkey is hoping to become the go-between in negotiations between Iran and the West about Iran's nuclear programme.

Kibaroglu pointed out that Turkey and Iran have a common enemy: the Kurds. The armed Kurdish separatists of the PKK hare hiding out in the Kandil mountains, which straddle the borders of Iraq, Iran and Turkey. Turkey needs Iran, and Iran needs Turkey. "If Turkey hadn't acknowledged Ahmadinejad's election victory, it would have been accused of siding with the enemies of Iran. Then all the trust it took years to build up would have been lost."