Balkenende is the talk of Brussels and The Hague

Balkenende's name has been circulating in Brussels: he could be the first permanent president of the European Council. His party is ready for anything.

Will Jan Peter Balkenende leave as prime minister of the Netherlands for a top position in Brussels? "Nonsense," he said Thursday when asked about his desire to become president of the EU. But it didn't kill the persistent rumours that he is in the running for the position of permanent president of the European Council, the EU's principal decision-making body of government leaders. If only because Balkenende didn't give any guarantees for staying on.

In his defence, it was an impossible question to answer. Had he admitted his European aspirations in parliament he would have committed political suicide. Moreover, this is not the type of job you apply for: the position can only be obtained through a subtle mix of showing interest, making cautious approaches and, eventually, being asked.

Verhagen will be prime minister

Balkenende's possible move has been circulating through the The Hague and Brussels' grapevine for months, but became the centre of attention on the final day of the 2010 budget debate. The daily Het Financieele Dagblad on Thursday wrote that Balkenende's Christian democratic party CDA has already agreed on the scenario if its leader leaves for Brussels. In that case, the paper wrote, foreign minister Maxime Verhagen will become the new prime minister and transport minister Camiel Eurlings - Mr up-and-coming in the CDA - will move to the department of foreign affairs.

The position Balkenende is being mentioned for is that of permanent president of the European Council - not to be confused with the European Commission or the Council of Europe. This permanent presidency is a new position, created under the Lisbon Treaty. If the Irish, in a second referendum in October, vote in favour of the reform treaty, the Council will no longer have a bi-annually rotating presidency, but a permanent one for 2.5 years - with a possible extension for the same tenure.

A veteran from a tiny country

Balkenende is one of the candidates, for a number of reasons. In the group of European heads of state and government that make up the Council he is considered a veteran after being prime minister for seven years. His CDA party is part of the largest group in the European parliament, the European People's Party, and being from a tiny country, the Dutchman poses no threat to other member states. Finally, the Netherlands is one of the countries that has used the euro currency since it was introduced.

But his predecessors Wim Kok and Ruud Lubbers were also mentioned for European top positions repeatedly when they were prime minister. Lubbers' candidacy was blocked by German chancellor Helmut Kohl in 1994. Kok procrastinated in answering the question of his availability for so long it stopped being asked.

Constitutional law does not stand in the way of a move to Brussels. There will be no reason for new elections as the Dutch prime minister is not elected, but nominated by his party. And Balkenende's CDA seems to be ready for that scenario.