Pechstein's doping conviction based on 'deceit'

A Dutch statistician has cast doubt on the doping conviction of German speed skater Claudia Pechstein. 'As long as the biomedical passport is upheld, one in twenty athletes will find themselves unjustly convicted'

Claudia Pechstein was Germany’s most successful female Olympic speed skater ever, winning five Olympic gold medals. Her career ended in disgrace on November 25 however, when The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS), the ultimate sporting authority, upheld an earlier ruling by the International Skating Union (ISU) banning the 37-year old from competing for two years. The conviction cited abnormalities in her blood profile found in February 2009 when the skater competed at the world all-round speed skating championships in Hamar, Norway. Pechstein has always denied any wrongdoing.

Blood-profiling is sports officials’ newest weapon in the fight against doping. Based on regular testing, doctors try to establish baseline values for athletes, which are then recorded in a so-called ‘biomedical passport.’ If an athlete’s blood profile diverges enough from the preset values, the use of doping is assumed.

A critical voice casts doubt

Now, Dutch statistician Klaas Faber is calling the Pechstein conviction into question. He lambasts the CAS for what he calls its "tunnel vision". He says the basis for the Pechstein conviction is "quicksand." "If the correct calculations had been made, Pechstein would have never been convicted."

Faber (52) is a chemometrician by trade, a profession combining elements from chemistry, statistics and mathematics. He has worked for numerous renowned institutes in the field and is currently a self-employed consultant. Faber is an outspoken critic of doping research, which he has called "not up to scientific standards."

He has uncovered errors in the cases brought against Belgian triathlete Rutger Beke, Dutch steeplechaser Simon Vroemen and the underage speed skater Wesley Lommers.

According to Faber, the Pechstein case is the best demonstration of the inadequacy of doping research he has seen so far. Pechstein’s conviction was based entirely on the abnormalities found in her blood profile. She has never failed a drug test, nor is there any other supporting evidence. "Statistically speaking, her conviction was incorrect. I have seldom seen this level of stupidity," Faber said.

One in twenty will fail tests

Studying Pechstein’s conviction, Faber found that it was based on her abnormally high levels of reticulocytes, or immature red blood cells. The level detected occurs naturally in approximately one in twenty cases, Faber said. While this is a normal statistical cut-off point for scientific purposes, Faber said, in doping cases more certainty is required. "The more far-reaching the consequences of a decision based on statistics are, the more certain you have to be of your findings." According to Faber, a doctor working for the International Skating Union has himself cited a certainty level of one in 1,000 as optimal. "If they would have stuck with that number, Pechstein would have never been convicted," Faber said.

According to Faber, a low cut-off point for diverging values means that a skater with a long career like Pechstein’s is guaranteed to fail a test sooner or later. "If you do plenty of testing, somewhere down the line you are going to find a value that is out-of-bounds due to a little thing called chance," Faber said.

The biomedical passport, which was officially recognised by the global anti-doping agency WADA last week, depends heavily on statistics. According to Faber, the low levels of divergence from standard values allowed for in the Pechstein case will prove impossible to enforce. "Annually, 200,000 samples are evaluated in sports. A 95 per cent certainty level means you will automatically end up with 10.000 bogus doping cases every year."

'Bordering on fraud'

Practical objections aside, Faber feels most strongly about the integrity of the process. According to the statistician, the mathematical wizardry surrounding the Pechstein case boils down scientific deceit. "It really borders on fraud. The people involved should be stripped of their scientific titles."

The main target of Faber’s accusations is Pierre-Edouard-Sottas, a Swiss scientist who was the driving force behind the establishment of the biomedical passport.

Claudia Pechstein is the first athlete to be punished based on blood profiling alone. The ISU is the only sporting federation that has convicted athletes based upon the values recorded in their biomedical passport so far.

Herman Ram, managing director of the Dutch Doping Authority responded indifferently to Faber’s criticism of the biomedical passport. "This is a discussion between scientists in which I do not wish to become involved. The Pechstein case is solid. Faber holds an opposing view in doping cases, which is his right."

Faber confronted Olivier Rabin, the WADA’s scientific director, with his findings. He responded by email calling them "speculations without factual merit."

Still, Faber feels the Pechstein conviction should be undone as quickly as possible. "Perhaps the CAS will make amends," Faber said. "If not, Pechstein should take her case to a German or European court. I hope she does. If the biomedical passport is banned tomorrow I say good riddance. As long as these criteria are upheld the future is crystal clear. One in twenty athletes will find themselves unjustly convicted."