Bitter election campaign looms

Cleaning up the economy is the issue for the upcoming parliamentary election. How many seats will Wilders get? And what possible coalition could rule? These are the main questions now.

The election campaign kicked off just minutes after the Dutch cabinet collapsed at 4 am Saturday morning. Geert Wilders’ populist PVV party was the first to send out a press release, entitled “PVV is ready for new elections”. The Socialist Party issued one an hour later and left wing liberal D66 followed quickly.

The fall of the latest cabinet led by Jan Peter Balkenende brings some interesting political times, fraught with uncertainty and excitement. New parliamentary elections will be held in three months or so. A definitive date should be set this week.

The campaign is gearing up to be a repeat performance of the 2002 election, marked by the rise and fall of the populist right-wing politician Pim Fortuyn. Fortuyn was assassinated just one week before the election, but his threat to the traditional balance of power had made political leaders from all sides lash out in an unusually bitter election campaign.

This time, populist politician Geert Wilders seems set to play the part of Fortuyn. While he may lack the charisma of the late politician, he is very proficient at generating publicity and dominating public debate.

The main question is: how will the centre-right CDA deal with him? Will the Christian democrats seek cooperation with a party that agitates so loudly against Islam? Wilders has already created a possible deal breaker: he wants to maintain the age for state pensions at 65. Raising the age of eligibility to 67 was the only major cutback decision the fallen cabinet had taken.

With or without Wilders?

Labour leader Wouter Bos has been keen to point out that the CDA does not reject a coalition with Wilders. What Bos meant to say was: a vote for CDA may be one for a government with Wilders in it. The CDA’s tried and true mantra is: it never excludes any party in advance.

The more recent election of 2006 featured an acerbic personal vendetta between Balkenende and Bos. Since both will be leading their parties into the next election as well, chances are it will again be marked by acrimonious relations. Speculations about a change in CDA leadership were put to rest immediately after the fall of the cabinet. The party’s board has asked Balkenende to lead the Christian democrats into the next election and he promptly agreed.

Bos’ continued leadership is not a surprise. In 2006, Balkenende accused him of lying and making U-turns on policy issues. CDA repeatedly tried to hammer this point home during the campaign. This time around, the question of integrity has already been raised during the run-up to the crisis, with both parties accusing each other of improper behaviour. Its spectre will linger for some time.

As the campaign progresses, the matter that led to the current political crisis – the Dutch mission to Afghanistan - will take a back seat to the economy, which is shaping up to become an important issue. This may lead to a classic right/left political dichotomy. CDA, right-wing liberal VVD and left liberal D66 are looking to institute some far-reaching cutbacks, while Labour, the Socialist Party and Green Party, GroenLinks, want to avoid overreaching in this department. The PVV tends left when it comes to the economy, but it is looking to cut back on what it calls “leftist hobbies”, meaning subsided art, projects involving ethnic minorities, and foreign aid. Left wing parties are considering raising taxes for people with higher incomes.

The polls' predictions

The opposition will be entering the elections with mixed expectations. The Socialist Party and VVD are performing poorly in the polls, while GroenLinks and D66 are doing well. [see box below]

If the campaign becomes a horse-race between Balkenende and Bos, the opposition could suffer. Many voters will feel forced to choose either one or the other for strategic reasons. Geert Wilders and D66’s Alexander Pechtold may also take a shot at the top spot. Wilders’ popularity seemed to have peaked a couple of weeks ago. An early election would probably be in his favour in this respect.

Just after the elections, the Netherlands will find itself at a crossroads. Enormous cutbacks are required, but what cabinet is up to the task? Can a stable three-party coalition be formed? Or is a minority cabinet supported by consenting members of parliament an option? Everything is possible in today’s dynamic political climate.

A return of the current CDA, Labour and orthodox Christian ChristenUnie government is unthinkable, but other possible combinations abound. An oft cited possibility is a return to the so called ‘purple’ cabinets composed of Labour, VVD and D66, that ruled the Netherlands between 1994 and 2002, perhaps augmented by GroenLinks. This coalition would be hard pressed to make cutbacks, but the parties see eye to eye in other departments.

The municipal elections of March 3 will be a first demonstration of the new balance of power. Blows dealt then may be fatal, since there will be very little time to recuperate. All parties are looking to get into a winning mode as soon as possible. For those who lose next month, there won’t be much time to recover.

Total number of seats in parliament: 150. Not all parties listed.

Source: Maurice de Hond, Reuters.