Governing coalitions of old less likely today

After the Dutch parliamentary election of June 9, the real struggle for power will commence as the political parties seek to form a new governing coalition. The outcome of this painstaking process has become less predictable over the decades.

The birth of a Dutch governing coalition is notoriously laborious. Negotiations can drag on for weeks, if not months. In the past though, the number of real options for their outcome was relatively limited. For nearly half a century, Dutch cabinets came in two basic flavours: centre-left and centre-right. Between the end of Second World War and 1994, the Christian democratic CDA or its predecessors were continuously represented in government. Labour and the right-wing liberal VVD would almost unfailingly alternate as the Christian Democrats' major partners. Additional parties would occasionally augment these coalitions, but their influence was relatively limited, as was their time in power. In the political landscape of the past this made sense, since these three parties comprised practically the entire political landscape. As recently as 1994, CDA, Labour and VVD controlled 125 of the 150 seats in parliament.

1994: CDA falls from power

In elections held that same year, the Christian democrats were removed from power for the first time since universal suffrage was introduced in the Netherlands in 1917. The CDA, a party born out of the merger of three smaller Christian parties in 1980, lost more than 20 seats over its proposed reforms to state pensions, and Labour became the biggest party, a feat the social democrats had accomplished before in 1956, 1971, 1972 and 1977. This time though, Labour opted to bypass CDA altogether to form a coalition with the right-wing liberal VVD and left-wing liberal D66, a joining of forces that would give birth to two so-called 'purple' cabinets (a blend of Labour's and the VVD's traditional colours: red and blue).

The fall of the second and last purple cabinet, in 2002, seemed to mark a return to business as usual. Even the turbulent rise of the populist leader Pim Fortuyn was unable to upset the traditional composition of governing coalitions for any longer than a few months. CDA returned to the centre of power, governing alternately with VVD and Labour. Still, their waning share of the electorate (after 2002 the three generally held between 110 and 90 seats) meant that where, in the past, two party coalitions had been quite common, the third partner had now become a permanent fixture.

An end to tradition?

Next week's election seems ready to set the stage for even more non-traditional possibilities. Looking at the polls, a loss of historic proportion seems unavoidable for the Christian Democratic CDA, after eight consecutive years in the drivers' seat. One recent poll predicts the party of prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende might win only 21 seats. A far cry from its current 41 and well below its historic record low of 29.

The three-year coalition between Labour and CDA, which came to an end in February, has left relations between those two parties strained. Mutual animosity has grown to such a level it seems all but insurmountable. CDA-leader Balkenende has said such a new coalition involving the two parties would "lack credibility". Prominent Labour members have voiced similar sentiments.

Furthermore, the fractured political landscape stands in the way of many time-honoured coalitions. Going by current polls, a traditional centre-right cabinet, of VVD and CDA, can only realise a three-party majority when augmented by Geert Wilders’ PVV. VVD leader Mark Rutte has already labelled this coalition "a possible outcome" of the election. The PVV has not minced words in expressing its preferene for such a coalition. Still, even with two parties ready to get started, the option remains highly controversial. The CDA's leadership has tried to keep its options open, but there is little love lost between the party's rank and file and the PVV.

The PVV has already opened the door to a possible solution however: party leader Geert Wilders has said he would consider condoning a minority government of CDA and VVD. Apart from this scenario though, a traditional coalition seems unlikely. A CDA-VVD-D66 coalition, for instance, does not hold a majority in any poll.

New options

The upset of old political traditions has led to some surprising proposals. Alexander Pechtold, the leader of D66, whose party currently looks set to garner 10 or 11 seats according to the polls, has openly expressed his preference for a return to the purple coalitions of old, this time augmented by the Greens of GroenLinks, a combination which has promptly been dubbed "New Purple". Surprisingly, CDA leader Jan Peter Balkenende has expressed a preference for a similar cabinet, albeit one including his own CDA at the expense of Labour. (Suprisingly, Balkenende did not include the smaller, competing orthodox Christian ChristenUnie party.) This suggestion not only marks a radical break with traditional coalitions, but the mere fact that the CDA expresses its preference before an election mired so deeply in uncertainty is unusual. Its central position in the political spectrum usually made such candour unnecessary, and even imprudent.

Some pundits have labelled this an act of desperation on the CDA's part. Also, the suggested coalition has already been called "highly unlikely" by one of its proposed members: GroenLinks leader Femke Halsema, who instead expressed her preference for a coalition that is "as progressive as possible". The only parties that have offered any guarantees over future coalitions so far are Labour and D66, which have both vowed they will not join a government that includes the PVV. The elections may be less than a week away, but a new government could be a long time in the making.