The Netherlands will be just fine without Balkenende

The European Union is almost ready to choose a permanent president. This title is too much honour for the incumbent who will not be allowed much in the way of power and personnel. The post has more to do sitting at the head of the table and streamlining the decision-making process. Nevertheless the job is unique. It has no historic precedent. The first incumbent will set the tone, even though that will be within the boundaries established by the member states, particularly the large countries.

Taking these boundaries into account, it is not a good idea to immediately appoint a political animal like former British prime minister Tony Blair, whose roots lie in a country that is not part of the euro zone and which next year might vote in a Euro-sceptic Conservative government. Far better to choose a president from a smaller and more pliable country.

The Dutch prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende is one of the candidates, although he has not yet declared his candidacy. The smoke screens raised during the past few weeks are rather reminiscent of the Vatican conclave. But this is business as usual backstage in Europe, where Balkenende clearly feels at home.

His non-candidacy should however be taken seriously. Balkenende represents a small country with virtually no enemies within the EU. He threatens no one. And thanks to the No vote in the European constitution referendum of 2005, partly attributable to Balkenende, the Netherlands no longer has a federalist reputation which is reassuring to sceptics.

There are possible party political objections. Commission president José Manuel Barroso comes from the same political movement and two Christian Democrats in the European top may be one too many. But the same can be said of the Luxemburg prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker and former chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel of Austria. The former Belgian premier Guy Verhofstadt does not have this handicap, but this liberal is too much of a federalist. Leaving Balkenende as a logical candidate.

In general, leaving the post of prime minister early is frowned upon. Particularly in the case of Balkenende who, if he leaves, will not have brought any of his four governments to a successful conclusion. But he cannot be accused of leaving precipitously. He has been prime minister for seven years. This longevity is one of the reasons to sound him out for the presidency. And his fourth cabinet has been in power for two-and-a-half years now. His electoral mandate is no longer fresh.

He will of course leave the Netherlands in a deep recession. But are there any matters in the coming eighteen months that require his personal attention? The new frameworks for the financial sector and government spending lie primarily with finance minister Wouter Bos (Labour) and state pensions with social affairs minister Piet Hein Donner (Christian Democrat). Apart from the royal family, that only leaves the future of the Dutch military mission in Afghanistan for the prime minister, and its future is clear.

No one begrudges him the first presidency of Europe. He is qualified for the post in Brussels. And he is not indispensible in The Hague. The Netherlands can still be governed without Balkenende.